Saturday, February 16, 2013

2013 Oscar Predictions

I really didn't have time to write this post, but I couldn't resist. The Oscars are the biggest event of the year, and I just had to weigh in...

Best Picture
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Winner: It’s been a fantastic year for film all around, but it looks like Argo is well ahead to take the big prize. Not my personal favorite (SLP all the way!), but a very worthy winner nevertheless. And Ben Affleck really does give the best speeches.

Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Winner: His Majesty the King of Acting, Daniel Day-Lewis. It’s just too bad that the other four guys have been nominated against him all season, because they all probably could have had a decent shot in another year.

Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Winner: Mmm, tricky. Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence were always regarded as the frontrunners here, but Emmanuelle Riva winning the BAFTA really adds another dimension to this category. I’m still supporting my girl J-Law all the way, and she did win the SAG award, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Riva or Chastain pulled off an “upset”.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Winner: Man, this is such a crapshoot; I feel like everyone except Alan Arkin has a decent chance here. (Sorry, but Arkin had very little to do in Argo, and it’s crazy that he got nominated over Leonardo DiCaprio in Django, Eddie Redmayne in Les Mis, Dwight Henry in Beasts of the Southern Wild, Ewan McGregor and Tom Holland in The Impossible, Ezra Miller in The Perks of Being a Wallflower, and dozens of other fantastic male supporting roles this year.) Hoffman gave the most substantial performance, Jones steals all of his scenes in Lincoln, and Waltz somehow won both the Globe and the BAFTA (despite winning for a very similar role in Inglorious Basterds only 3 years ago). If I had to choose just one, though, I would pick Robert De Niro, because he’s terrific in SLP and hasn’t won an Oscar since 1981.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jackie Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Winner: Anne Hathaway has been writing this acceptance speech since December. But this is Amy Adams’ 4th Oscar nomination, and when her 5th comes, she’ll officially be overdue to win.

Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Winner: If Ben Affleck were nominated for Argo, he’d be a lock to win. Without him, though, it looks like it’s down to Ang Lee, Steven Spielberg, and maaaaaaybe David O. Russell. It’s really hard to pick between Lee and Spielberg, but I’m going to go with Lee because his movie is more technically impressive, and he just seems like the sweetest man ever.

Writing - Original Screenplay
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
John Gatins, Flight
Michael Haneke, Amour
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Winner: I really really want Moonrise Kingdom to pull off an upset here, but that’s unlikely at best. This is down to ZDT and Django, and with all the torture controversy over ZDT, I’m going to go with Django. “The ‘D’ is silent.”

Writing - Adapted Screenplay
Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David Magee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio, Argo

Winner: This one’s down to Argo, Lincoln, and SLP; between those three, I’ll say Argo because it’s likely to win Best Picture. (Lincoln and SLP both had far superior dialogue, but sadly, that’s kind of irrelevant.)

From here on out, I’m just guessing blindly, so I have no real analysis.

Animated Feature Film
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

Winner: I’ll say Brave, but it could just as easily be Wreck-It Ralph.

Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi

Winner: But seriously, how stunning does Life of Pi look?

Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

Winner: According to fashion peeps, Anna Karenina is costume porn.

Documentary - Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Winner: Searching for Sugar Man was won pretty much everything this year.

Documentary - Short
"Kings Point"
"Mondays at Racine"
"Open Heart"

Winner: No idea. “Open Heart” sounds deep though.

Film Editing
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Winner: Argo

Foreign Language Film
Amour (Austria)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)

Winner: Amour

Makeup And Hairstyling
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

Winner: Les Miserables

Music - Original Score
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
Thomas Newman, Skyfall
John Williams, Lincoln

Winner: Life of Pi

Music - Original Song
"Before My Time" from Chasing Ice, music and lyrics by J. Ralph
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted, music by Walter Murphy, lyrics by Seth MacFarlane
"Pi's Lullaby" from Life of Pi, music by Mychael Danna, lyrics by Bombay Jayashri
"Skyfall" from Skyfall, music and lyrics by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
"Suddenly" from Les Miserables, music by Claude-Michel Schönberg, lyrics by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Winner: Skyfall

Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi

Winner: Life of Pi

Short Film - Animated
"Adam and Dog"
"Fresh Guacamole"
"Head over Heels"
"Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'"

Winner: “Paperman” is cute :]

Short Film - Live Action
"Buzkashi Boys"
"Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)"

Winner: No idea. But the Internet says “Curfew”.

Sound Editing
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

Winner: Argo

Sound Mixing
Les Miserables
Life of Pi

Winner: Les Miserables

Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Snow White and the Huntsman

Winner: Life of Pi


  1. Whooo, 20/24! Not bad at all, if I do say so myself :]